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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."